Sometimes the worst part of the economic forecasting I do is the sinking feeling my predictions will be right.
So it came to pass this month with the release of fourth
quarter 2012 data on growth of the U.S. economy. The shrinking of the economy in fourth quarter by a slight 0.1 percent almost certainly marks a new American recession.
Indeed, because we have good data back to World War II, there has been no quarterly decline in GDP on record without a recession.
Last summer, as Europe’s economy headed into a recession and U.S. industrial production, retail sales and personal income stalled, I called an imminent recession.
Of course given the season, that looked to many folks like politicking. It was not. Things were far worse last summer than the media portrayed them. I was not the one politicking with economic data.