A numbers game

Contrary to popular theory, high school football coaches won’t wait until summer to begin scouting prospective opponents.

The process starts in February after the IHSAA releases its classifications for the 2017-18 and 2018-19 school years based on submitted enrollment figures.

Conducted biannually in an attempt to level the competitive playing field as much as possible, this data impacts classifications in seven other sports (girls and boys soccer, volleyball, softball, baseball and girls and boys basketball).

In January, the Indiana Department of Education provides enrollment figures to the IHSAA, which will post the composite list in order for member schools to review it, according to commissioner Bobby Cox.

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Sometime in February, the IHSAA will reveal the new classifications for all of the sports.

The IHSAA’s Tournament Success Factor also comes into play, with a program moving up one class if totaling six or more postseason points since the previous realignment.

As an example, Roncalli High School, which last week wrapped up the Class 4A football title after being a semistate participant in 2015, moves up to 5A after accruing nine points over the past two postseasons.

The six Johnson County football programs are likely to remain where they are the next two seasons. Only Center Grove, which won the 6A championship in 2015 and finished runner-up this season, would qualify to move up if the Trojans weren’t already in the largest class.

Whiteland’s student enrollment has increased by 86 students since the last time the IHSAA requested such information from its member schools.

However, Warriors coach Darrin Fisher doesn’t anticipate moving from Class 5A to 6A.

After all, the school’s enrollment of 1,849 falls short of the smallest 6A high school the past two years by more than 100 students — New Albany has 1,988.

“My feeling is we’re going to stay right where we are,” Fisher said. “But between now and the time it’s released there’s not a lot you can do about it.

Two years ago, Whiteland’s enrollment was 17th largest among the 32 high schools in Class 5A.

With Roncalli moving up to Class 5A and Cathedral still mulling the option to return to 5A after two seasons in 6A (Success Factor), the Warriors’ postseason path could become even more interesting than it already is.

In 2015 and 2016, the Warriors’ sectional has produced the past two state runners-up in New Palestine and Columbus East, respectively.

Fisher would prefer there be realignment every four years.

“It’s just my own opinion, but I think you would have fewer programs moving if you had four years instead of two,” he said. “The larger the sample size, the truer it’s going to be.

“I think that two years is not long enough.”

Greenwood’s enrollment, while up, won’t be enough for the Woodmen to jump from 4A to 5A. The smallest of the non-Success Factor 5A programs two years ago was Martinsville with 1,564 students.

Greenwood falls well short with 1,216.

“We are solidly in the middle of 4A. We’re not even close to moving up or down; we haven’t been a fringe team since I’ve been here,” Greenwood coach Mike Campbell said.

With Roncalli removed from Class 4A for no less than the next two football seasons, Campbell realizes the complexion of his team’s sectional is about to change.

He’s used to it.

As recently as the 2014 season, Greenwood’s sectional included Connersville, East Central, Madison and South Dearborn. The past two years it was possible to venture as far north as Frankfort or as far west as Northview (near Terre Haute).

“Where we are, we’re kind of by ourselves as far as 4A schools,” Campbell said. “I could see us going east, I could see us going southeast and I could see us going to the west. It doesn’t really matter to us.”

Sectional alignments for football and other team sports are approved at the IHSAA’s May Executive Meeting.

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Enrollment figures from 2014 and this year for the six Johnson County football programs (and Roncalli):

School;Class;2014;2016;+/-

Center Grove;6A;2,456;2,508;+52

Edinburgh;A;288;266;-22

Franklin;5A;1,630;1,641;+11

Greenwood;4A;1,160;1,216;+56

Indian Creek;3A;600;620;+20

Roncalli;4A;1,176;1,180;+4*

Whiteland;5A;1,763;1,849;+86

*Automatically moves up one class due to IHSAA Success Factor

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